Atlantic hurricane season forecast increased to above normal

In an update to its 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) has increased their call from a “near normal” season to an “above normal” season when it comes to the number of expected storms.

The updated NOAA forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. (CTV/Kalin Mitchell)Atmospheric conditions along with record warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures are the reasons given for the change. Warmer ocean waters are the source of energy for tropical storms and hurricanes.

Additionally less wind shear, which is a change in wind speed with height, has been observed in the sub-tropical Atlantic. Less wind shear is favourable for the development of tropical storms and hurricanes as strong wind shear can tear apart the thunderstorms that comprise the storms before they can get organized.

More wind shear was initially expected in the sub-tropical Atlantic due to the presence of El Nino. El Nino is a warming of the surface waters near the equator in the central/eastern Pacific Ocean. That is often associated with more wind shear being present over the Atlantic Ocean.

The latest forecast now calls for a 60 per cent chance of an above normal season. That would include 14 to 21 named storms, six to 11 reaching hurricane strength, with two to five becoming major hurricanes, which are category three or higher.

The list of names to be used for storm this season. The next named storm will be Emily. (CTV/Kalin Mitchell)

While there are no areas currently being monitored for imminent hurricane development the peak of the season, September, is still ahead. The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.