Food prices expected to keep rising in 2023: researchers

Last year, Canadians saw a 10.3 per cent increase in their average grocery bill, and it's looking like they won’t be getting a break in the grocery aisle any time soon.

“A family of four had to pay an extra $1,000 to pay for the same food they bought in 2021, so it was a really challenging year for many families in 2022,” says Sylvain Charlebois, a food researcher and professor of food distribution at Dalhousie University in Halifax.

While many had hoped to see food prices leveling off in the new year, Canada's Food Price Report 2023 predicts they will continue to rise.

“We’re predicting food prices to increase by 5 to 7 per cent again this year. Not as much as 2022, but still 5 to 7 per cent is quite a lot,” says Charlebois. “It’s all going to happen probably in the first half of the year, so until probably early summer things will still be challenging at the grocery store. But after that, after July, we’re expecting things to calm down a little bit.”

Lately, Charlebois says the question he is most asked is “will prices decrease?”

His answer? “Not exactly.”

“It’s costing more to do everything in the food industry for distribution to transportation, processing, everything is costing more. So obviously it’s highly unlikely that prices will drop. You may actually find deals here and there because things are more predictable.”

Charlebois says the price of vegetables, bakery items and dairy products are expected to jump the most.

“And the Canadian dollar is a concern certainly because interest rates are going up in Canada, but they’re also going up in U.S. That’s going to support the American dollar which could actually make our currency weaker. It could impact importers here in Canada, especially in the winter months.”

While those products are going up, Charlebois says there are some good prices, especially when it comes to certain meats.

“If you’re in to pork, if you like pork, pork prices are pretty cheap these days, so there are good deals. I know that in the news we often talk about what’s more expensive, we rarely talk about what’s less expensive and pork is certainly one deal right now.”

One tip Charlebois wants shoppers to know is: don’t rule out small, independent stores.

“They often offer really good deals without any advertisement. People tend to go to big box stores thinking that everything’s cheaper – not necessarily. In the Halifax area, for example, lots of great grocers, independent grocers, that can offer you some good deals.”

Many people have had to change their shopping habits due to the pandemic and inflation, and Charlebois says shoppers need to continue being mindful of the changing landscape.

“The one thing I’ve noticed the last couple of years is if you go to a grocery store one day, market conditions, prices aren’t necessarily the same as the day after. Prices are really dynamic, things change quite often these days. So you want to be on top of things as much as possible before you even show up at the grocery store, knowing exactly how much you should be paying for certain products on your list.”