Kalin's Call: Rain and wind event lined up to impact the Maritimes
A longer duration rain and wind event is lined up to impact the Maritimes through the first part of next week.
The event looks to span mainly Monday into Wednesday. While significant change in the forecast is still possible over the weekend, the potential rain totals are high enough to warrant concern of possible flooding issues. Likewise, an outlook for wind shows the potential for gusts strong enough that there is a risk of power outages in some areas.
A quick note on the setup. A deep trough in the jet stream will kick colder air out to the eastern U.S. seaboard this weekend. This provides the necessary energy to see a series of coastal low pressure systems develop. The jet stream then develops into a block over the north Atlantic, which will stall those low-pressure systems in the vicinity of the Maritimes during the above mentioned Monday to Wednesday. As the lows stall, they will draw a stream of moisture up from the sub-tropical Atlantic. That will feed the rain and downpours expected.
A stalled strong low pressure system will tap into moisture from the sub-tropical Atlantic next week creating a prolonged period of rainy weather for the Maritimes.
A stalled strong low pressure system will tap into moisture from the sub-tropical Atlantic next week creating a prolonged period of rainy weather for the Maritimes.
Current guidance (computer forecast models) project rainfall totals exceeding 50, 80, and even 100 mm for large parts of the Maritimes over a span of 36 to 72 hours. When it comes to specific locations and communities there is still some large differences in those projections from model-to-model. Given that, it is best to consider general areas that look more likely to see the range of higher totals and hence have the higher risk of flooding and flash flooding. As it stands today, Friday, that area is primarily Nova Scotia, southern New Brunswick, and P.E.I.
I’d recommend taking time this weekend to ensure drainage on and around your residence is free and clear of any fall debris. If you typically need use of a sump pump during a heavy rain, you should check that it is in working order. Mind local areas and roads that often see ponding water during a heavy rain and expect that those conditions may develop.
While specific rainfall totals for specific locations will see change over the next few days the area at risk of seeing the higher amounts looks to be Nova Scotia, P.E.I., and parts of southern New Brunswick.
While specific rainfall totals for specific locations will see change over the next few days, the area at risk of seeing the higher amounts looks to be Nova Scotia, P.E.I., and parts of southern New Brunswick.
Wind for the region will largely depend on the position of the stalled low on the given day. As it stands, it looks like areas near the Atlantic coastline of mainland Nova Scotia could build towards southerly gusts of 80 to 100 km/h by Monday evening and night. Monday night into Tuesday morning could see those stronger gusts shift to eastern Nova Scotia (including Cape Breton) and P.E.I. It helps that most of the leaves are off the trees but gusts that high typically come in with at least a risk of power outages.
Early indications are that areas near the Atlantic coastline of Nova Scotia could reach southerly gusts 80-100 km/h by late Monday. The stronger winds shifting eastward in Nova Scotia and building into PEI Monday night into Tuesday.
Early indications are that areas near the Atlantic coastline of Nova Scotia could reach southerly gusts 80-100 km/h by late Monday. The stronger winds shifting eastward in Nova Scotia and building into PEI Monday night into Tuesday.
This is a weather event that doesn’t start for another two days and extends a few more days past that. Check frequently on your forecast this weekend and expect updates.
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