Atlantic Canada sees low inventory on housing market heading into 2024

Across Moncton there are a number of “For Sale” signs posted outside homes, but selection is down.

“What we’re seeing in real time is inventory is down again and the volume of transactions is going up again, so what that means is that the momentum is in favour of a seller and that we’re probably going to continue to see a low inventory count for the rest of 2024,” said Martin Gallant, realtor and partner with Creativ Realty in Moncton.

So far this year, he says he’s seen an uptick in volume and the return of multiple offer situations.

“With the interest rate environment where it is, the price range that’s been the most in demand is the $400,000 and under so a lot of people that were able to afford a little bit more have been pushed down into a lower price range, so that’s where the biggest demand is,” he said.

Heading into his 12th year, Gallant says he’s seen first hand how the market has changed in the Greater Moncton area.

“We had, I want to say, 5,000 listings for a while when we started out and now we’re down to about 800, so it gives you a little bit of an idea of the two extremes,” he said, noting the numbers would ideally be somewhere in the middle.

According to data from RateHub.ca from February 2024, in Moncton an average home costs about $337,000 and a buyer needs to make an income of $76,300. In Fredericton an average home is around $290,300 and the income needed is $67,740 and in Halifax, prices jump to $531,200 for an average home with an income requirement of $111,600.

“If you’ve grown up in Atlantic Canada, these prices probably feel astronomical,” said James Laird, the co-CEO of Ratehub.ca.

Laird says in the last four-to-five years, Atlantic Canada has seen a lot of property appreciation, but even still, he expects Canadians to continue to migrate to the east coast through 2024.

“When you look at it on a national bases, compared to certainly most of Ontario, BC, it still looks like a very attractive place,” he said.

“[…] you don’t need to make more than $100,000 to qualify for that average home, which is rare in Canada now. In most cities you need more than $100,000. In Toronto and Vancouver you now need north of $200,000 to qualify for that average home.”

Laird also points out alongside Atlantic Canada, Alberta could also be considered a more affordable option with homes in Edmonton less than $400,000 on average and in Calgary less than $600,000 on average.

The housing situation even carries over to recreational properties according to a new report from Royal LePage.

It shows single-family homes in recreational regions are expected to increase 4.5 per cent this year.

Matt Honsberger with Royal LePage Atlantic says this looks into secondary homes like cottages.

“Boomers are holding onto these properties longer, millennials are starting to want some of them and so there is going to be a shortage of inventory and the home builders are not focused on secondary properties,” he said.

“If you look at a typical home owner in your principal residence, you tend to move on average every seven years or so. If you’re buying a cottage, I’m guessing you’re going to hold that for a longer period of time. You’re either going to decide that you don’t like cottage life right away, which means you’re going to sell it pretty quickly, or you’re going to hang onto it for a generation or maybe even more then that.”

As for who is currently in the market for a recreational home, Honsberger says late millennials – those in their early 40s.