Ernesto gains hurricane strength, starts move northward towards Bermuda

The National Hurricane Center declared Ernesto a category-one hurricane with maximum sustained winds near the centre of the storm rated as 120 km/h on Wednesday.

The storm is moving northwest at 26 km/h and is entering a favourable area of the southern Atlantic for further strengthening.

The official forecast now has Ernesto reaching category-three – a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 185 km/h – Friday morning as it approaches the Bermuda area.

While it is too early to know if the storm will impact Bermuda directly, the agency states a Hurricane Watch may be issued for Bermuda by the end of the day.

The current status of Ernesto per the noon ADT update from the NHC. (Source: CTV News Atlantic)

Forecast cone

The five-day forecast cone issued by the National Hurricane Center extends north of Bermuda and ends with it covering an area from Nova Scotia to well east of Sable Island Monday morning.

The cone is only issued for five days in advance, as beyond that time the uncertainty the storm will maintain a position within the cone becomes too great.

It has been found historically the track of the storm will remain within the forecast cone 60-to-70 per cent of the time.

The forecast cone moves north of Bermuda and towards or east of the Maritimes. The cone widens to represent the growing uncertainty of the position of the storm moving further ahead in time. (Source: CTV News Atlantic)

A closer look at Atlantic Canada

The cone widens as the forecast for the storm extends from the current day through five days out. That is to express the increased uncertainty in the forecast as you move further away from the current day.

Being at the end of the five-day cone, the area it includes as it reaches Nova Scotia and east into the Atlantic is very wide – nearly 750 km/h wide.

Should the storm travel through the more western part of the cone (closer to Nova Scotia), it would increase the chances of weather impacts on land for the Maritimes on Monday.

A path more towards the central (Sable Island) or eastern part of the cone (Georges Bank and Scotian Slope marine districts) would decrease the chances of weather impacts on land for the Maritimes on Monday.

The cone is very broad as it reaches Nova Scotia for Monday. A path along the westernmost part of the cone would increase the chances of weather impacts, a path more central or eastern reducing the chance of weather impacts. (Source: CTV News Atlantic)

The forecast intensity of Ernesto as it approaches either Nova Scotia or the marine areas on Monday is a category-one hurricane with maximum sustained winds at 150 km/h.

While it is currently unknown if there will be a direct impact, category-one hurricanes are associated with:

• Damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding, and gutters.
• Branch fall and possible toppling of shallowly rooted trees.
• Damage to power lines and poles that could result in outages from a few to several days

The Maritimes region is still very much in the long-range part of the forecast for Ernesto with all the increased uncertainty that comes with that. Be aware of the storm and check for updates daily, certainly on Friday. If you need help with making some preparations in the event of a hurricane, look for resources here.