Murphy's Logic: Conservative leadership conundrum
The Conservative Party of Canada is about to choose its third leader in five years. Neither Andrew Scheer nor Erin O’Toole were able to bring down the Liberals and Justin Trudeau; the Conservatives hope it’s third time is lucky. But it’s going to take more than luck.
Beyond the prime minister’s considerable political skills, the main reason the Conservatives haven’t succeeded in dislodging the Liberals is that the CPC is fractured along the same fault line on which it was jammed together by Stephen Harper and Peter MacKay back in 2003.
At that time, the Liberals, under Jean Chretien and then Paul Martin, had enjoyed a long run in power because the conservative opposition was similarly divided. Reformers versus PC’s. The same scenario may be able to play out again.
The current front-runner for the leadership, Pierre Poilievre, is drawing his largest and most enthusiastic crowds in areas of traditional Canadian Alliance or Reform party support, appealing to populist impulses.
But traditionally, Canada’s Conservative parties are conservative only by Canadian standards. In power, they have not tampered with social issues, health care or other files that true blue or right-wing conservatives might find irresistible.
Anyone with a vote in the current Conservative leadership election might want to consider this. Erin O’Toole might today be PM had he stood up to the more reactionary elements in his own party, the vax deniers, virus skeptics, those who openly criticized actions that were widely embraced by moderates, that’s most Canadians. In the late days of the last election campaign, including during an interview with me, O’Toole couldn’t even bring himself to criticize Alberta’s handling of the pandemic which was, by then, raging out of control.
O’Toole won the leadership by appealing to the most right wing members of his party - as Poilievre is doing - but then failed to make a convincing move to the middle, where governments get elected.
To this point, the only Conservative leader who’s been able to do that is Stephen Harper and he did it by deciding not to campaign and govern like the social conservative reformer everyone knew he really was. He earned his stripes with the right wing through tough caucus discipline and authentic conservative fiscal policies.
Pierre Polievre seems a man likely to remain publicly true to his personal beliefs, effectively alienating mainstream moderates, who may be longing for a change - but leery of the populism of Poilievre.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Doctors say capital gains tax changes will jeopardize their retirement. Is that true?
The Canadian Medical Association asserts the Liberals' proposed changes to capital gains taxation will put doctors' retirement savings in jeopardy, but some financial experts insist incorporated professionals are not as doomed as they say they are.
Something in the water? Canadian family latest to spot elusive 'Loch Ness Monster'
For centuries, people have wondered what, if anything, might be lurking beneath the surface of Loch Ness in Scotland. When Canadian couple Parry Malm and Shannon Wiseman visited the Scottish highlands earlier this month with their two children, they didn’t expect to become part of the mystery.
Fair in Ontario, flurries in Labrador: Weather systems make for an erratic spring
It's no secret that spring can be a tumultuous time for Canadian weather, and as an unseasonably mild El Nino winter gives way to summer, there's bound to be a few swings in temperature that seem out of the ordinary. From Ontario to the Atlantic, though, this week is about to feel a little erratic.
What do weight loss drugs mean for a diet industry built on eating less and exercising more?
Recent injected drugs like Wegovy and its predecessor, the diabetes medication Ozempic, are reshaping the health and fitness industries.
He replaced Mickey Mantle. Now baseball's oldest living major leaguer is turning 100
The oldest living former major leaguer, Art Schallock turns 100 on Thursday and is being celebrated in the Bay Area and beyond as the milestone approaches.
What a urologist wants you to know about male infertility
When opposite sex couples are trying and failing to get pregnant, the attention often focuses on the woman. That’s not always the case.
'It was instant karma': Viral video captures failed theft attempt in Nanaimo, B.C.
Mounties in Nanaimo, B.C., say two late-night revellers are lucky their allegedly drunken antics weren't reported to police after security cameras captured the men trying to steal a heavy sign from a downtown business.
Bank of Canada officials split on when to start cutting interest rates
Members of the Bank of Canada's governing council were split on how long the central bank should wait before it starts cutting interest rates when they met earlier this month.
Made-in-Newfoundland vodka claims top prize at worldwide competition
A Newfoundland-made vodka has been named one of the world’s best by judges at this year’s World Vodka Awards.