Murphy's Logic: Conservative leadership conundrum
The Conservative Party of Canada is about to choose its third leader in five years. Neither Andrew Scheer nor Erin O’Toole were able to bring down the Liberals and Justin Trudeau; the Conservatives hope it’s third time is lucky. But it’s going to take more than luck.
Beyond the prime minister’s considerable political skills, the main reason the Conservatives haven’t succeeded in dislodging the Liberals is that the CPC is fractured along the same fault line on which it was jammed together by Stephen Harper and Peter MacKay back in 2003.
At that time, the Liberals, under Jean Chretien and then Paul Martin, had enjoyed a long run in power because the conservative opposition was similarly divided. Reformers versus PC’s. The same scenario may be able to play out again.
The current front-runner for the leadership, Pierre Poilievre, is drawing his largest and most enthusiastic crowds in areas of traditional Canadian Alliance or Reform party support, appealing to populist impulses.
But traditionally, Canada’s Conservative parties are conservative only by Canadian standards. In power, they have not tampered with social issues, health care or other files that true blue or right-wing conservatives might find irresistible.
Anyone with a vote in the current Conservative leadership election might want to consider this. Erin O’Toole might today be PM had he stood up to the more reactionary elements in his own party, the vax deniers, virus skeptics, those who openly criticized actions that were widely embraced by moderates, that’s most Canadians. In the late days of the last election campaign, including during an interview with me, O’Toole couldn’t even bring himself to criticize Alberta’s handling of the pandemic which was, by then, raging out of control.
O’Toole won the leadership by appealing to the most right wing members of his party - as Poilievre is doing - but then failed to make a convincing move to the middle, where governments get elected.
To this point, the only Conservative leader who’s been able to do that is Stephen Harper and he did it by deciding not to campaign and govern like the social conservative reformer everyone knew he really was. He earned his stripes with the right wing through tough caucus discipline and authentic conservative fiscal policies.
Pierre Polievre seems a man likely to remain publicly true to his personal beliefs, effectively alienating mainstream moderates, who may be longing for a change - but leery of the populism of Poilievre.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Cargo ship had engine maintenance in port before Baltimore bridge collapse, officials say
The cargo ship that lost power and crashed into a bridge in Baltimore underwent 'routine engine maintenance' in port beforehand, the U.S. Coast Guard said Wednesday.
A Nigerian woman reviewed some tomato puree online. Now she faces jail
A Nigerian woman who wrote an online review of a can of tomato puree is facing imprisonment after its manufacturer accused her of making a “malicious allegation” that damaged its business.
Far North police 'dispatch' polar bear stalking schoolyard
Police and local hunters in an Ontario Far North First Nation community have “dispatched” a polar that was showing abnormal behaviour and treating the area as a hunting ground.
Donald Trump assails judge and his daughter after gag order in N.Y. hush-money criminal case
Donald Trump lashed out Wednesday at the New York judge who put him under a gag order that bars him from commenting publicly about witnesses, prosecutors, court staff and jurors in his upcoming hush-money criminal trial.
Families shocked after Niagara Falls hotel cancels bookings made year in advance of solar eclipse
After having the foresight to book their Niagara Falls hotel rooms more than a year in advance, several families planning to take in the solar eclipse next month were shocked to find out their reservations had been cancelled.
B.C. rescuers face 'high likelihood' of failure to reunite orphaned orca with pod
The race to reunite an orphaned orca calf that’s stuck in a shallow lagoon with a neighbouring pod has entered its fifth day, and a marine scientist says the clock is ticking.
Video shows police interrupting auto theft in progress outside Toronto home
New video footage obtained by CP24 shows the attempted theft of a vehicle in a North York driveway earlier this month that was ultimately interrupted by police.
Majority of Canadians believe in life after death: Angus Reid survey
A new survey from the Angus Reid Institute has found that a majority of Canadians believe in some form of life after death, a proportion that has held steady for decades.
MyPillow, owned by U.S. election denier Mike Lindell, formally evicted from Minnesota warehouse
A court ordered the eviction Wednesday of MyPillow from a suburban Minneapolis warehouse that it formerly used.