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Murphy's Logic: Conservative leadership conundrum

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The Conservative Party of Canada is about to choose its third leader in five years. Neither Andrew Scheer nor Erin O’Toole were able to bring down the Liberals and Justin Trudeau;  the Conservatives hope it’s third time is lucky. But it’s going to take more than luck.

Beyond the prime minister’s considerable political skills, the main reason the Conservatives haven’t succeeded in dislodging the Liberals is that the CPC is fractured along the same fault line on which it was jammed together by Stephen Harper and Peter MacKay back in 2003.

At that time, the Liberals, under Jean Chretien and then Paul Martin, had enjoyed a long run in power because the conservative opposition was similarly divided.  Reformers versus PC’s.  The same scenario may be able to play out again.

The current front-runner for the leadership, Pierre Poilievre, is drawing his largest and most enthusiastic crowds in areas of traditional Canadian Alliance or Reform party support, appealing to populist impulses.

But traditionally, Canada’s Conservative parties are conservative only by Canadian standards.  In power, they have not tampered with social issues, health care or other files that true blue or right-wing conservatives might find irresistible.

Anyone with a vote in the current Conservative leadership election might want to consider this. Erin O’Toole might today be PM had he stood up to the more reactionary elements in his own party, the vax deniers, virus skeptics, those who openly criticized actions that were widely embraced by moderates, that’s most Canadians.   In the late days of the last election campaign, including during an interview with me, O’Toole couldn’t even bring himself to criticize Alberta’s handling of the pandemic which was, by then, raging out of control.

O’Toole won the leadership by appealing to the most right wing members of his party - as Poilievre is doing - but then failed to make a convincing move to the middle, where governments get elected.

To this point, the only Conservative leader who’s been able to do that is Stephen Harper and he did it by deciding not to campaign and govern like the social conservative reformer everyone knew he really was. He earned his stripes with the right wing through tough caucus discipline and authentic conservative fiscal policies.

Pierre Polievre seems a man likely to remain publicly true to his personal beliefs, effectively alienating mainstream moderates, who may be longing for a change - but leery of the populism of Poilievre.

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