HALIFAX -- The NDP's byelection loss in a Nova Scotia stronghold -- just days after a veteran MLA left the party caucus -- suggests the party's support may be sliding in the Maritimes, observers say.
On Tuesday, the Progressive Conservative candidate, local councillor Steve Craig, managed a win in Sackville-Cobequid, a provincial riding held by the NDP since 1984.
Craig took 2,655 votes, finishing 183 votes ahead of New Democrat Lara Fawthrop, a school teacher, according to unofficial results.
The governing Liberals were a distant third, with candidate Michel Hindlet drawing only 658 votes, ahead of the Green Party's Anthony Edmonds.
The NDP loss came about a week after MLA Lenore Zann announced she's leaving the party to sit as an Independent in the provincial legislature to make a bid for a Liberal nomination in the upcoming federal election.
Lori Turnbull, a professor of political science at Dalhousie University, said in an interview the byelection loss and Zann's decision to depart her Truro-area riding are likely unrelated -- but are nonetheless troubling for party stalwarts.
"It's hard not to see this as part of something larger when the last few electoral contests have not gone well for the NDP," she said in a telephone interview, referring to the party's dismal recent showings in New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island elections.
"Maybe they really are facing a bit of a crisis here."
Howard Ramos, a professor of sociology at Dalhousie University, surveyed political values in Atlantic Canada over the winter, with researchers speaking to 1,072 residents.
He noted the province is still more than two years away from a general election. But he said the byelection signals Nova Scotians may be willing to choose the Progressive Conservatives under new leader Tim Houston over the "labour left agenda" under Gary Burrill's leadership.
"The rather static polling numbers of the NDP and losing a seat that it's held for decades shows they're not hitting the message they need to hit in their core region," he said.
Ramos and Turnbull point out there are local factors, such as Craig being well-known as a municipal councillor.
The New Democrats lost power in 2013 to the Liberals after a single-term majority government, with many pundits predicting the party faced a lengthy period in the political wilderness.
Burrill, a former social worker and United Church minister, came to the party leadership over two years later. He won a seat in the 2017 general election in Halifax Chebucto as his party held on to its seven seats in the 51-seat legislature.
However, with Zann's departure and the loss of the seat held by former paramedic Dave Wilson -- who stepped down from the legislature last November -- the party is now back at its lowest levels since the mid-1990s.
"These are both serious disappointments for us," said Burrill in an interview on Wednesday.
However, he said he will stay focused on his program of "social, environmental and economic justice," and sees no need to reconsider his status as leader of the party.
"We've had a disappointment and we're registering that today but the sky has not fallen on us," he said.
Liberal Premier Stephen McNeil said his party's worst showing in recent history -- as it received barely 10 per cent of the vote -- isn't giving him cause for concern, even though it comes after a series of negative polls.
"It was a byelection. They (the Tories) had a very good candidate," said McNeil.
He said his government has made tough decisions on fiscal restraint and he believes its popularity will rebound as health care investments take root.
A clinic closed in the riding in the midst of the byelection campaign, and thousands of Nova Scotians remain unable to find a family doctor.
The Progressive Conservatives' victory leaves the majority Liberals with 27 seats, while the Tories have 18 seats, the NDP hold five, and Zann is the sole Independent.
