Hurricane Lee moving northwest, poses weekend risk to Atlantic Canada

As of Monday afternoon, Lee is a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near the eye of the storm at 195 km/h. The hurricane is moving northwest at near 13 km/h, starting to make a turn around the southern edge of a high pressure system that sits to the east of it.

The current status of hurricane Lee as of Monday afternoon.

In the latest forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center, which extends out five days, the storm does not yet reach land areas of Atlantic Canada, but does encompass the southern marine districts of Georges Bank and West Scotian Slope. The intensity of the storm at that time, Saturday, is currently forecast to be a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 130 km/h. A further expansion of the forecast cone northward over the next 24 hours, which looks likely, would start to reach into Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

The forecast cone is the area in which the centre of the storm is expected to take a path through and it has been found to historically be accurate about 70 per cent of the time. The cone does not represent the entirety of the area that could experience impacts from the storm. The cone broadens in size considerably the further out in time it goes due to increased uncertainty in the forecast.

The current status of hurricane Lee as of Monday afternoon.The current timing of Lee, of which there is uncertainty in as well, would pose a weather threat to the Maritimes for the upcoming weekend. Stormy conditions are a risk for both Saturday and Sunday, the inclement weather arriving ahead of the centre of the storm may be on the slower side to progress through the region. It is still too early to determine a more precise path the storm could take through the Maritimes. Specific weather impacts and their intensity will be determined by that track. A higher confidence in those details will emerge through the week, particularly as we get about three days out from the storms possible approach which would be the Wednesday/Thursday of this week.

High pressure to the east of Lee increases the risk it will have an impact on Atlantic Canada as that system could delay an eventual turn eastward of the storm.

One aspect of these weather systems to keep in mind is that they see a notable increase in size as they move northward. Weather impacts such as the rain and wind become more diffused from the centre of the storm, but cover a larger area.

We have experience with tropical storms and hurricanes here in the Maritimes. The most far reaching impact is likely to be a risk of power outages. The risk of outages is increased at this time of the year due to the presence of leaves on the trees which act to increase the force of high winds on them. More localized impacts of coastal surge and heavy rain would need to be watched for as well should the storm have a direct impact on us.

It's time to start reviewing general household storm/emergency plans. As an example if you use a sump pump in heavy rain or a generator in a power outage you should take the time to make sure those are in working order. Continue to check in on the status of the storm and forecast for your area this week.

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