Is hurricane Lee headed for Canada? The 'spaghetti models' can be misleading: expert
For residents of Canada's East Coast, some of the latest images showing the potential path northward for hurricane Lee are disturbing.
By combining multiple computer-generated forecasts, meteorologists have produced maps of the western Atlantic Ocean that suggest the powerful storm could slam into the Maritimes late next week.
But Chris Fogarty, program manager at the Canadian Hurricane Centre in Halifax, says these long-range models are of little value at this stage.
Fogarty says these spaghetti models -- so called because the layers of predicted tracks look like splayed noodles -- don't adequately represent the broad range of possible forecasts.
"In the case of Lee, these maps are not very useful beyond about five days because the noodles can become very scattered and confusing," he said Friday in an email.
"Beyond about five days -- depending on the degree of chaos in the atmosphere -- they can appear more focused than they should be. At those long time ranges, they don't usually depict the (full) range of possible tracks."
As an example, Fogarty pointed to the path recently taken by hurricane Franklin earlier this month.
The 10-day spaghetti model for Franklin also indicated it would head toward Atlantic Canada, but its actual track took the storm out to sea long before it came close to Canadian waters.
"The plots for Franklin showed numerous track possibilities, but the actual track occurred outside many of the predictions," Fogarty said. "So that was an example of how they can be misleading."
Earlier in the week, the hurricane centre posted an image on social media showing the difference between the 10-day prediction and Franklin's actual track, saying it provided "a stark reminder of the considerable uncertainties in model track predictions."
Fogarty said the centre uses spaghetti models in its computer analysis, but the models are not displayed on Environment Canada's website. "We don't display them in our tweets either," he said, adding that the diagrams "can confuse the lay viewer."
The Canadian Hurricane Centre produces its own online hurricane track map, which provides a five-day forecast.
As Lee churned through the northeast Caribbean on Friday, it became the first Category 5 storm of the hurricane season before it lost some of its strength and was downgraded to Category 4 with sustained winds reaching 250 kilometres per hour.
Category 5 hurricanes produce devastating winds in excess of 252 kilometres per hour, while Category 4 storms generate winds reaching at least 209 kilometres per hour, which can also cause catastrophic damage to buildings and trees.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued a public advisory Friday saying Lee would remain a powerful hurricane into next week as it passes north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
"Some fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next few days," the American agency said. "Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to (55 kilometres) from the centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to (220 kilometres)."
Large swells generated by Lee were expected to reach the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Haiti and the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas and Bermuda this weekend.
"Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday," the advisory said.
Lee is the 12th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 and typically peaks in September.
"It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada or Bermuda late next week," the U.S.-based hurricane centre said.
Meanwhile, tropical storm Margot became the 13th named storm after forming Thursday evening well east of Lee. Margot was forecast to strengthen into a hurricane over the weekend but was expected to remain far from Canada and the United States.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 8, 2023.
-- With files from The Associated Press
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
'A beautiful soul': Funeral held for baby boy killed in wrong-way crash on Highway 401
A funeral was held on Wednesday for a three-month-old boy who died after being involved in a wrong-way crash on Highway 401 in Whitby last week.
Police handcuff man trying to enter Drake's Toronto mansion
Toronto police say a man was taken into custody outside Drake's Bridle Path mansion Wednesday afternoon after he tried to gain access to the residence.
Biden says he will stop sending bombs and artillery shells to Israel if they launch major invasion of Rafah
U.S. President Joe Biden said for the first time Wednesday he would halt shipments of American weapons to Israel, which he acknowledged have been used to kill civilians in Gaza, if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu orders a major invasion of the city of Rafah.
Rookie goalie Arturs Silovs to start for Canucks in Game 1 vs. Oilers
Rookie goalie Arturs Silovs will start in net for the Canucks as Vancouver kicks off a second-round series against the Edmonton Oilers Wednesday night.
Quebec premier defends new museum on Quebecois nation after Indigenous criticism
Quebec Premier Francois Legault is defending his comments about a new history museum after he was accused by a prominent First Nations group of trying to erase their history.
Nijjar murder suspect says he had Canadian study permit in immigration firm's video
One of the Indian nationals accused of murdering British Columbia Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar says in a social media video that he received a Canadian study permit with the help of an Indian immigration consultancy.
Pfizer agrees to settle more than 10K lawsuits over Zantac cancer risk: Bloomberg News
Pfizer has agreed to settle more than 10,000 lawsuits about cancer risks related to the now discontinued heartburn drug Zantac, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the deal.
U.S. presidential candidate RFK Jr. had a brain worm, has recovered, campaign says
Independent U.S. presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had a parasite in his brain more than a decade ago, but has fully recovered, his campaign said, after the New York Times reported about the ailment.
B.C. theatre to pay $55K to neurodivergent actor in discrimination case
British Columbia's human rights tribunal has awarded a neurodigergent actor, who was diagnosed with sensory and learning disorders, more than $55,000 after finding that a Kelowna theatre company discriminated against him because of his disabilities.