Political science professor predicts P.E.I. election campaign will be 'nasty'

A political science professor at the University of Prince Edward Island predicts the province’s election campaign will be “nasty” and “grumpy.”

Premier Dennis King, leader of the Progressive Conservative Party, called an election on Monday, with voters heading to the polls April 3.

Professor Don Desserud calls it “the worst kept secret on the island” and doesn’t think Islanders are in the mood for an early election.

“I think this is gonna be a very grumpy election. In fact, everybody’s grumpy, even the premier is grumpy and he’s not normally grumpy. It’s a strange call. It’s hard to really figure out a solid reason why it’s necessary to go to the polls right now,” he said during an interview with CTV’s Todd Battis.

“I mean even if you wanted to have an early election, why not wait until May or June, so we’ll see how this goes.”

Desserud says he’s also concerned voting turnout will suffer.

“This is a province that prides itself on high voting turnout. I think people might be just a little annoyed and just tune out because this is not something that they really want to do right now.”

Under the province's Election Act, general elections are supposed to be held every four years on the first Monday in October, which would have made for an Oct. 2 vote.

Desserud says he can’t think of a solid reason behind the early election call.

“There are reasons why governments use these opportunities to try and strategically con election to their advantage, but the polls show – and the poll that just came out – shows the King government and Dennis King himself enjoying huge popularity.”

Recent polling from Narrative Research shows the Progressive Conservative are the preferred choice for 49 per cent of respondents.

The Green Party stood at 25 per cent, with the Liberal Party at 20 per cent with the NDP at four per cent.

“Those parties are flat lining, they’re not gaining any support at all,” says Desserud.

“The best I can come up with, basically, this is a government that’s been tired of governing and I can’t blame them, they’ve had a heck of a run, a lot of bad things have happened that they’ve had to deal with, and the idea of having an election, maybe having some new people in there, a cabinet shuffle with some new talent, would be just what they want.”

At dissolution, the Conservatives held 15 of the legislature's 27 seats. The Green Party, led by Peter Bevan-Baker, had eight seats, and the Liberals under Sharon Cameron held four.

Desserud thinks opposition parties will focus on the King government’s handling of post-tropical storm Fiona during the campaign.

“What they’re going to argue is that the King government should of seen this coming. They had plenty of warning that climate change was producing large storms; this is the second hurricane that they had to deal with under their watch. They should have been prepared and they were not prepared and as a consequence things got fouled up,” he says. “There was not a coherent response, things were delayed.”

The Green Party in particular will focus in on the topic, according to Desserud.

“They’ve been warning that this was going to happen and we’re going to have these disasters over, over and over again – they’re going to go after that,” he says.

“But whether the public accepts that that’s something that the King government should of done, or more to the point that the other parties could of done a better job, that’s what I guess the campaign will determine.”

Desserud adds that the Green Party hasn’t seen the excitement from last provincial election, and the passing of 17 pieces of legislation, translate into polling numbers.

The vote in 2019 saw P.E.I. become the first province in Canada in which the Green Party formed the official Opposition.

“They want to keep that support and that’s their big challenge, but they have to show that they’ve got a good team, that’s ready to govern and that they’re prepared to move forward on some of these issues. That’s going to be a tough road for them. They have to depend upon the King government making mistakes during this campaign,” Desserud says.

“Quite frankly, I think that the Greens would be satisfied as long as they finished second. Even if they lose seats, as long as they can maintain that official Opposition status, they’ll be happy because this is about cutting your losses at this point.”

“I think this is going to be a nasty campaign and a personal campaign,” Desserud added. “I don’t think it’s going to be a lot of fun.”

With files from The Canadian Press 

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