HALIFAX -- Health officials in Nova Scotia say the province could see between 1,453 and 6,269 cases of COVID-19 by June 30, depending on whether residents comply with public health measures.
The province released its epidemiological projections during a news conference Tuesday afternoon. The modelling projects the impact COVID-19 could have on Nova Scotia from now until June 30.
“You will notice a dramatic difference in the number of cases, based on compliance with distancing versus bad compliance and distancing,” said Premier Stephen McNeil.
If Nova Scotia hadn’t taken the public health measures currently in place, the modelling indicates that the province could have seen a total of 943 COVID-19 cases by now, rather than 517 cases – almost double the number of cases.
If residents comply with public health measures, such as staying home as much as possible and practising social distancing, 1,453 cases of COVID-19 are expected by June 30.
If they don’t, the province could see up to 6,269 cases of COVID-19 by the end of June, according to the modelling.
“It’s an indication of why we’re doing what we’re doing,” said Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Robert Strang.
“We still have COVID-19 here, we’re still having impacts, but far less impacts than we would see.”
The modelling also indicates how many people could be hospitalized. With good compliance of public health measures, it's projected that hospitalizations would peak at about 35 in May. With poor compliance, 85 people would likely be hospitalized as a result of COVID-19.
“Our poor compliance issue would put our system in the same kind of jeopardy that you see in other provinces,” said McNeil.
“This is the one that keeps me up. This is the one that scares me and it should scare all of you. We need to make sure that we follow public health advice.”
The model doesn't include possible death rates, which Strang said are difficult to predict.
The pandemic modelling was developed by staff from the Department of Health and Wellness, Nova Scotia Health Authority and IWK Health Centre.
The province has also released more information about the number of cases confirmed in Nova Scotia communities.
Most of the province’s 517 cases are in the Dartmouth and Halifax areas, where some communities -- particularly North Preston, East Preston and Cherry Brook -- and long-term care homes are seeing a spike.
Of the 43 new cases reported Tuesday, Strang said 14 of the cases are from communities in east Dartmouth, while 13 are from Northwood.
Strang said health officials are working with those communities and with Northwood to help contain the outbreak of COVID-19.
“We’re continuing to test in one of those communities and we’re opening up new assessment centres in two other communities in the east Dartmouth area,” he said.
He also noted that Northwood is conducting its own testing and said most residents are experiencing mild symptoms while some are asymptomatic.
According to a statement on Northwood’s website, a total of 31 residents at its Halifax campus had tested positive for COVID-19 as of Tuesday. Ten staff members, four home support workers and two health services staff have also tested positive for the virus.
To date, Northwood has conducted over 400 COVID-19 tests.
All charts were provided by the Nova Scotia government.
