Dairy prices expected to jump in the new year

SYDNEY, N.S. -

While food prices in general are going up, the Canadian Dairy Commission is recommending an increase of 8.4 per cent in the cost of milk to processors.

That's more than the 7.4 per cent it's gone up in the last five years combined, which means the cost of a carton of milk could soon be going up by an historic amount.

"The previous record was about 4.52 per cent," said agri-food expert Sylvain Charlebois.

An 8.4 per cent hike in milk sold to retailers and restaurants would be nearly double that.

Charlebois says it's the highest recommendation he's seen in the 54-year history of the Canadian Dairy Commission (CDC).

With dairy farmers expected to get more than 12 per cent more for butter, he says it would all make for a major effect on consumers in the new year.

"We're expecting hikes of on average, 8 to 10 per cent retail as of February 2022," Charlebois said. "As for dairy products, that increase could actually exceed 12, 13, 15 per cent even."

Marco Amati, the general manager of the Loaves & Fishes community kitchen in Sydney, is bracing for tougher times.

"It's gonna be tough," Amati said.

Whether it's a few litres of milk, or the freezer items they buy in bulk, the people who run Loaves & Fishes are shopping everywhere for a bargain these days but can't catch a break.

They'll be relying more than normal on donations during the coming colder months.

But as tough as things are for them, it's even more difficult for those who eat here.

"We're going to see our numbers rise, because people are going to need that meal -- that hot meal," Amati said. "And thank God we're here to do it. So it's going to be a tough winter."

At a plant-based restaurant just down the road from Loaves & Fishes, there could be a silver lining to all of this.

"There's literally no better time than now -to make that switch," said Joey Matheson, the co-owner of JJ's Plant-Based Eats.

Since opening, they've had to deal with the stigma that eating healthier costs more.

Now, their hope is that if more grocery shoppers avoid meat and dairy to save a few bucks, some of them might become new customers at a place like this.

"But, if we see an increase of people switching more to plants and vegetables, obviously we're going to see an increase here in business and that's fantastic," Matheson said.

Charlebois says if Canadian milk is priced out of the market, we could see production consolidated even more out of Quebec and Ontario.

"I'm very concerned about the future of dairy in this country, and in particular in the Atlantic by the way," Charlebois said.

That would be bad news for dairy farmers here in the Maritimes.

"In 1980, we had over 800 dairy farms in Nova Scotia," he said. "We're down to 250 now. This is not going to help."

The new prices would only become official once they're approved by provincial authorities. A decision is likely to come early next month.