2024 hurricane season will be busy: Colorado State University forecast
Colorado State University has released their first forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
While a number of organizations release outlooks for the season the program at Colorado State University is among the longest running and most renowned. This will mark the 41st year the program, started by Professor Bill Gray in 1984, has released a forecast. Gray passed away in 2016, however the program continues under a number of professors, research scientists, and PhD candidates.
The CSU forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is for a very active one.
It calls for 23 named storms, 11 strengthening to hurricanes, and 5 reaching major (category three or higher) hurricane strength. Those are all well above the averages for the season.
The primary factors in the forecast this year include:
- A transition for El Nino to La Nina this summer making for favourable wind conditions for storm development over the Atlantic.
- Warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic that are at record or near record levels. Warm waters fuel tropical storms and hurricanes.
- A forecast that the trend for warm Atlantic waters will continue through the hurricane season which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Persistent, and near record warmth in parts of the Atlantic Ocean basin are given as one of the reasons for a more active hurricane season.
The program issues their next update on the forecast on June 11. You can read more on the CSU forecast here.
Regardless of how active the season is, it only takes one powerful, land falling storm to make it a bad one. Hurricane Fiona in 2022, the costliest tropical sourced storm in Canadian history, occurred in a very average hurricane season. You can find resources to help have a plan for hurricane season here .
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