Murphy's Logic: Conservative leadership conundrum
The Conservative Party of Canada is about to choose its third leader in five years. Neither Andrew Scheer nor Erin O’Toole were able to bring down the Liberals and Justin Trudeau; the Conservatives hope it’s third time is lucky. But it’s going to take more than luck.
Beyond the prime minister’s considerable political skills, the main reason the Conservatives haven’t succeeded in dislodging the Liberals is that the CPC is fractured along the same fault line on which it was jammed together by Stephen Harper and Peter MacKay back in 2003.
At that time, the Liberals, under Jean Chretien and then Paul Martin, had enjoyed a long run in power because the conservative opposition was similarly divided. Reformers versus PC’s. The same scenario may be able to play out again.
The current front-runner for the leadership, Pierre Poilievre, is drawing his largest and most enthusiastic crowds in areas of traditional Canadian Alliance or Reform party support, appealing to populist impulses.
But traditionally, Canada’s Conservative parties are conservative only by Canadian standards. In power, they have not tampered with social issues, health care or other files that true blue or right-wing conservatives might find irresistible.
Anyone with a vote in the current Conservative leadership election might want to consider this. Erin O’Toole might today be PM had he stood up to the more reactionary elements in his own party, the vax deniers, virus skeptics, those who openly criticized actions that were widely embraced by moderates, that’s most Canadians. In the late days of the last election campaign, including during an interview with me, O’Toole couldn’t even bring himself to criticize Alberta’s handling of the pandemic which was, by then, raging out of control.
O’Toole won the leadership by appealing to the most right wing members of his party - as Poilievre is doing - but then failed to make a convincing move to the middle, where governments get elected.
To this point, the only Conservative leader who’s been able to do that is Stephen Harper and he did it by deciding not to campaign and govern like the social conservative reformer everyone knew he really was. He earned his stripes with the right wing through tough caucus discipline and authentic conservative fiscal policies.
Pierre Polievre seems a man likely to remain publicly true to his personal beliefs, effectively alienating mainstream moderates, who may be longing for a change - but leery of the populism of Poilievre.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
'I just can't believe that it took so long': Body found in wreckage 3 months after deadly fire
A man accused of arson in a January Old Strathcona apartment fire is expected to be charged with manslaughter after a body was discovered in the burned building late last month.
No proof man lied to brother about number of kittens born in litter, B.C. tribunal rules
A man was denied a $5,000 payout from his brother after a B.C. tribunal dismissed his claim disputing how many kittens were born in a litter.
Quebec police hand out hundreds of tickets to Hells Angels and other bikers before 'first run' meeting
Quebec provincial police handed out hundreds of fines to Hells Angels members and other supporting motorcycle clubs who met for their 'first run' in a small town near Sherbrooke, Que.
Grandparents killed in wrong-way crash on Hwy. 401 identified
A 60-year-old man and a 55-year-old woman killed in a wrong-way crash on Highway 401 earlier this week have been identified by the Consulate General of India in Toronto.
A Chinese driver is praised for helping reduce casualties in a highway collapse that killed 48
A Chinese truck driver was praised in local media Saturday for parking his vehicle across a highway and preventing more cars from tumbling down a slope after a section of the road in the country's mountainous south collapsed and killed at least 48 people.
A candidate for Germany's key party was beaten up while campaigning for European elections
A candidate for Chancellor Olaf Scholz's center-left party in next month's election for the European Parliament was beaten up and seriously injured while campaigning in an eastern city, the party said Saturday.
Russia puts Ukrainian President Zelenskyy on its wanted list
Russia has put Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on its wanted list, Russian state media reported Saturday, citing the interior ministry’s database.
Britney Spears 'home and safe' after paramedics responded to an incident at the Chateau Marmont, source tells CNN
A source close to singer Britney Spears tells CNN that the pop star is 'home and safe' after she had a 'major fight' with her boyfriend on Wednesday night at the Chateau Marmont in West Hollywood.
Snakes almost on a plane: U.S. TSA discovers a bag with small snakes in passenger's pants
According to an X post by the Transportation Security Administration, officers at the Miami International Airport found the small bag of snakes hidden in a passenger's trousers on April 26 at a checkpoint.