Track of Lee shifts west; Maritimes to still be impacted by rain and wind this weekend

Hurricane Lee on satellite imagery courtesy of NASA, now a Category 2 hurricane. (NASA)

The current forecast track shows Lee may pass just to the west of southwestern Nova Scotia on Saturday evening, before making a potential landfall in southwestern New Brunswick in the very early morning hours of Sunday.

The possible path of the storm is still quite wide, stretching from Maine across to Halifax. A shift of the track west/east in that area could change the landfall point and time.

The updated track for Hurricane Lee as per the National Hurricane Center Wednesday afternoon. (CTV/Kalin Mitchell)

Forecasts predict Lee will approach the southern marine waters of the Maritimes as a Category 1 hurricane before transitioning to a post-tropical storm as it crosses the region. The strength of Lee as it undergoes that transition is expected to be equivalent to a tropical storm.

The areas most likely to see tropical storm force winds reaching the Maritimes is in southwestern Nova Scotia and southwestern New Brunswick. The earliest arrival time of those winds in southwestern Nova Scotia are projected to be between by or near 8 a.m. on Saturday. Tropical storm force winds are defined as a two-second sustained wind of 63 km/h or stronger.

The probability of tropical storm force winds on Saturday. Highest in southwestern Nova Scotia and southwestern New Brunswick. (CTV/Kalin Mitchell)

Stronger wind gusts will be present in a larger area of the Maritimes. The strongest gusts expected in southwestern Nova Scotia and southwestern New Brunswick where they could peak in the range of 80 to 110 km/h, and in excess of 110 km/h on exposed areas of the coastline.

Much of the rest of the Maritimes can expect frequent wind gusts reaching 60 to 80 km/h at times throughout the day and into Saturday night. The prolonged period of high and gusty winds bringing a high risk of power outages, particularly for western Nova Scotia and southwestern New Brunswick.

While the wind is expected to be impactful, it is not expected to match the extremes of hurricane Fiona. It is notable that the more western areas of the Maritimes will catch the strongest of the wind from Lee, where it was more eastern areas of the Maritimes that bore the brunt of Fiona.

An overview of the peak wind gusts possible in the Maritimes Saturday. Prolonged periods of gusty winds bringing a risk of power outages. (CTV/Kalin Mitchell)The greatest risk of heavy rain on Saturday will be in western New Brunswick. There is a general risk of more isolated downpours in the Maritimes on Saturday due to the tropical nature of the air that is brought in with the storm.

A rough and pounding surf will also be present on parts of the coastline. In the latest information statement from the Canadian Hurricane Centre, they note that areas that are at most risk for impact from that include the “Atlantic coastal mainland Nova Scotia and areas around the Bay of Fundy.”

Further periods of gusty winds and rain are expected on Sunday in the Maritimes as Lee moves slowly into the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

An overview of the peak wind gusts possible in the Maritimes Sunday. The wind is expected to slowly diminish Sunday afternoon and evening. (CTV/Kalin Mitchell) More updates on Hurricane Lee will be available daily on CTV News Atlantic Noon, Five, Six and Late as well as on our website.