What the Russia-Ukraine crisis could mean for Maritimers

As Russian aggression escalates in Ukraine, the impact knows no border - taunting and testing NATO in what Robert Huish from Dalhousie’s Department of International Development Studies calls a hybrid war in Ukraine.

“A hybrid war isn’t just about a war with soldier and tanks on front lines and borders using ammunition,” Huish said.

“It also involves other tactics like cyber-attacks and political influence in elections, and even assassination attempts.”

Oil and gas prices were already high and Europe was already facing an energy crunch.

Russia is a major oil and gas producer and the geo-politics at play could pump up prices more.

“This morning, the price of crude almost touched a hundred dollars in London, so as prices continue increasing, Atlantic Canada will be facing the same type of increases we’re seeing all across Canada,” said Carol Montreuil, with Canadian Fuels Association.

Many investors in the Maritimes say they are watching closely. Rick Nason, an associate professor of Dalhousie’s Rowe School of Business, said it’s a game of wait and see.

“There’s always uncertainty in the markets but this has just ratcheted up a whole order of magnitude in terms of uncertainty,” Nason said.

Food prices are also vulnerable and not just because of fuel costs.

Sylvain Charlebois, the director of the agri-food analytics lab at Dalhousie University, said Ukraine is a big producer of corn and wheat – key components in food processing.

“If you take Ukraine out of the equation as a result of a potential conflict, obviously prices will go up,” he said.

Huish expects more cyber-attacks against NATO nations and potential for Canadian military and security experts to step in.

“It may not be direct conflict with Russia but certainly in cooperation with Ukrainian forces with technical assistance and cooperation,” Huish said.

He points out that despite the response from the West to impose sanctions, Russia is very good at skirting sanctions.

“It’s very much like a glass hammer. It looks impressive. When you use it, it does nothing,” he said.