Hurricane Milton approaches Florida; not expected to threaten Maritimes

Weather conditions will continue to deteriorate in Florida Wednesday evening and night as Hurricane Milton approaches and makes landfall. The eastward movement of the storm prevents it from becoming a risk for the Maritimes in the extended forecast.

Hurricane Milton larger and faster

The size of Hurricane Milton has increased from Tuesday into Wednesday. As the storm gets larger, the winds tend to diffuse more from the centre. Hurricane force winds are currently located about 100 km in diameter around the centre of the storm. This means hurricane and tropical storm force winds will arrive for parts of western Florida even before landfall.

The storm has also increased its speed towards the northeast since Tuesday. It is now moving at about 27 km/h. As of 2 p.m. ADT, the centre of the storm is located about 275 km to the southwest of Tampa, Florida.

Hurricane and tropical storm force winds now cover a larger area as the storm has grown in size since Tuesday. The strongest winds in the southeastern quadrant of the eyewall. (Source: CTV News Atlantic)

Landfall and impacts

Based on the Wednesday noon bulletin from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Milton will make landfall in western Florida late Wednesday night.

The landfall looks like it will take place near midnight and to the south of Tampa, perhaps closer to Sarasota or Venice. The strength at landfall will be either a weak category-four or strong category-three hurricane. The area just south of the landfall point could face easterly winds gusting to 200-plus km/h. Tropical storm force winds will batter a much larger portion of the state Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The National Hurricane Centre notes the landfall position could still shift by 30 kilometres or so even this close in the forecast.

Landfall expected late Wednesday night in Florida. The centre forecast to move onshore to the south of the Tampa area. (Source: CTV News Atlantic)

The forecast for storm surge potential for Tampa could still approach 2.7 metres (eight feet), which would still be dangerous and life threatening. The storm surge potential is highest in areas to the south such as near Venice, Port Charlotte, and Boca Grande. Those areas are at risk of a storm surge that could approach or exceed three metres (10 feet or more).

A peak storm surge map issued for Hurricane Milton by the National Hurricane Center.

The heaviest inland rain is still expected along and about 100 kilometres north of a line from Tampa to Orlando. Local rain totals could reach 150 to 450 mm and create flash and urban flooding. The outer bands of thunderstorms have already reached the state of Florida and have spawned instances of brief tornadoes. That weather already making last minute preparations and evacuations more difficult and dangerous in some areas.

Storm projected to move east past Bermuda

Milton is expected to exit eastern Florida into the Atlantic as a category-one hurricane Thursday morning. The storm is then expected to move east of Bermuda as a post-tropical area of low pressure by Saturday morning. The remnants of the storm will then start to slowly meander toward the north. A weather front coming across the Maritimes next Monday will likely keep the region clear of those remnants.

Milton is expected to continue east past Bermuda as a post-tropical storm. So far the remnants are expected to keep clear of the Maritimes. (Source: CTV News Atlantic)