Potential Trump tariff would have 'huge impact' on province's businesses: N.B. premier

New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt is hoping negotiations between Canada and the United States will keep a 25 per cent tariff on all goods exported to the United States from happening.

U.S. president-elect Donald Trump is vowing to impose the tariff on all products from Canada and Mexico as soon as he takes office on Jan. 20, if border issues between the three countries are not addressed.

Trump made the pledge Monday on social media saying Canada and Mexico have “ridiculous open borders” and the tariffs would stay in place until both countries addressed what he called the "long simmering problem" of drugs and illegal immigrants crossing into his country.

Holt spoke to reporters in Fredericton before the Legislative Assembly on Tuesday saying there’s roughly $12 billion in goods that crosses the New Brunswick/Maine border every year.

“It has a huge impact on us,” said Holt.

In a social media post of her own Monday night, Holt said 92 per cent of the province’s exports go to the U.S and a 25 per cent tariff would be devastating for businesses, communities and the economy in the province.

Holt said she and the other premiers will meet virtually with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Wednesday to find a solution that will work for Canada.

“It can’t be one-off negotiations between premiers and the states. We have to all come together and be on the same page in terms of how we demonstrate to the U.S. how integrated our economies are and how much a tariff like this will end up hurting the American economy as well as the Canadian economy,” said Holt.

Trudeau spoke with Trump Monday evening saying it was a “good call.”

Holt is hopeful if the tariffs are put in place they won’t last long.

“I want to make sure that New Brunswickers, their jobs and their businesses are protected and that we’re doing everything we can to prevent the imposition of tariffs on New Brunswick,” said Holt.

Forest NB executive director Kim Allen said around $2 billion of New Brunswick’s forest industry is exported to the U.S. annually.

She said the 25 per cent tariff will obviously have a significant impact on the industry.

Allen said there have been mill closures across the country as a result of the increase in softwood lumber tariffs.

“And that’s a very real threat for the future of New Brunswick as well,” said Allen. “We’re a small province and we’re heavily reliant on forest industry. There’s over 40 communities that are directly impacted that would lose jobs, tax revenues, those kind of things and all the spin-off businesses in the value chain for forestry. So we stand to be significantly impacted by this tariff.”

Blair Hyslop, co-owner of Mrs. Dunster's Bakery in Sussex, said 20 to 25 per cent of the business is shipped to Maine.

He believes the company will be able to compensate to some degree for the potential loss in business.

“I think over time we’ll be able to find alternatives to that volume in Canada. We’ve never had a problem growing,” said Hyslop. “But not by January 20.”

Hyslop said the potential tariff would have a big impact on food producers throughout the region.

“Food companies in Atlantic Canada tend to be more sort of north/south based in terms of their trade than east/west,” said Hyslop.

Hyslop said pretty much every company in Atlantic Canada that produces food, whether it’s seafood, blueberries, french fries, potato chips or baked goods, do a fair amount of their business south of the border.

“So we all have a good portion of our sales in the U.S., so all of the food companies in Atlantic Canada I would say are going to be impacted,” said Hyslop.

Kim Wilson, CEO of the Chamber of Commerce for Greater Moncton, said Canada and the U.S. have always enjoyed a mutually beneficial business relationship, but Trump’s tariff will put a strain on that.

“The 25 per cent tariff is of concern to everyone here in New Brunswick and is a real threat to the New Brunswick economy,” said Wilson. “The relationship with our allies will change as a result of this. It’s time that Canada took a strong stance on this issue, worked collectively across all provinces to change our approach with the U.S.”

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