Powerful Hurricane Earl forecasted to pass east of Maritimes

Hurricane Earl has increased in strength to become a category two hurricane with maximum sustained winds in the eye of the storm near 165 km/h as it moves to a position 365 kilometres south of Bermuda Thursday.

The hurricane is entering an environment of warm ocean water temperatures and light wind shear which will allow it to continue to intensify. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Earl reaching category three as early as Thursday evening and category four with maximum sustained winds near 215 km/h as early as Friday evening as it moves northeast of Bermuda.

A high-resolution satellite image of Hurricane Earl positioned to the south of Bermuda Thursday afternoon.

While passing to the east of Bermuda, the island is expected to experience tropical storm conditions beginning Thursday afternoon and extending into the evening. That would include sustained winds near, or in excess, of 65 km/h and rain that could total 25 to 75 mm. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for Bermuda.

Should Earl reach category three, it will be the first major hurricane (category three or higher) of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

The forecast track and intensity for Hurricane Earl over the next several days as issued by the National Hurricane Center.

While the forecast path of the hurricane holds well east of the land areas of Atlantic Canada, it may pass near or through the Grand Banks marine districts this weekend. Earl would be transitioning from a category three hurricane into a powerful post-tropical storm during this time.

There is only a low probability (less than 20 per cent) of eastern Newfoundland experiencing tropical storm force winds (63+ km/h) with hurricane force winds (120 km/h) remaining offshore.

The powerful weather system is expected to generate increased ocean swell and currents for coastal areas of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland this weekend and early next week. That may increase the risk of rip currents — something to be aware of if recreation or work takes you into the surf this weekend.

There is only a low probability being given of eastern Newfoundland experiencing tropical storm force wind this weekend and none for the Maritimes.

In 2010 a category one hurricane, also named Earl, made landfall near Western Head in Queens County Nova Scotia on Sept. 4 at 10 a.m. The storm impacted Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island with power outages and some flash flooding. One fatality, a drowning, was attributed to the storm.

August was a quiet month for tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic. A combination of wind shear, dry air, and Saharan dust dampening the start of any storms. It was the first August since 1997 not to have a single tropical storm or hurricane develop. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is September and October with the season closing at the end of November.

Coastal swell and currents are likely to increase for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland this weekend due to the passage of the storm to the east.