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Kalin's Call: Post-tropical Nicole brings rainy and windy Saturday

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Nicole made landfall in Florida at 4 a.m. Atlantic Time Thursday as a category 1 hurricane in the vicinity of Vero Beach, Florida.

Since then, Nicole has weakened to a tropical storm as it moved to position northeast of Tampa. The continued weakening of the system is expected as it remains over land. Tropical storm force winds are still expected to impact portions of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina into Thursday night. Heavy rain totaling 50 to 100 mm may fall in the central Appalachians and eastern areas of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio. New England could also see totals of 25 to 100 mm out of the rain.

The remnants of Nicole will combine with a weather front to produce a rainy and windy Saturday for the Maritimes.

The remnants of Nicole will combine with a cold front to produce a rainy and windy Saturday for the Maritimes.

WIND

The highest wind on Saturday will be mostly out of the south for the Maritimes, with the exception of northern New Brunswick which will be a more easterly wind. Widespread gusts of 40 to 60 km/h should be expected through the day. Peak gusts could reach 60 to 80 km/h on the Bay of Fundy and eastern coastline of New Brunswick, Atlantic coastline of Nova Scotia, Cape Breton, and Prince Edward Island. Due to the topography of the highlands, northern Inverness County Cape Breton will likely hit some gusts near or in excess of 100 km/h. The wind falls into a range that would be expected out of an autumn storm.

Some extra caution may be warranted as there could be some trees/branches and infrastructure more vulnerable due to previous damage from Fiona. Any easily wind-blown objects/furniture should be secured. I wouldn’t expect widespread power outages from a system such as this, but there will probably be some scattered across the region. Watch for impacts to ferry services and possible traffic restrictions on bridges/causeways.

Widespread gusts of 40 to 60 km/h expected Saturday with some areas hitting peak gusts of 60 to 80 km/h

RAIN

It’s a good slug of fall rain for the region. A widespread 20 to 40 mm with some totals that could climb into a range of 40 to 70 mm. The higher rainfall amounts look most likely in New Brunswick and western P.E.I. Can’t rule out some higher totals in Digby, Yarmouth and Inverness counties of Nova Scotia as well. Given that the rain will have a tropical component, be aware that higher rainfall rates and downpours are possible. It would be a good idea to check that drainage is free and clear of any fall debris to help with water runoff.

A general 20 to 40 mm of rain though with a risk that some areas could see higher totals of 40 to 70 mm.

COASTS

There will be minimal risk of coastal flooding or storm surge with this system. Be careful on the coasts around high tides on the Bay of Fundy and Acadian coastlines of New Brunswick and the Atlantic coastline of Nova Scotia on Saturday due to increased wave action and onshore wind. Any vessels operating in marine areas should check a detailed marine forecast as a strong wind and increased wave heights will be present.

Storm surge isn’t expected to be a hazard with the storm. There will increased wave action and strong-to-storm force marine winds.

WEATHER ALERTS

As of Thursday, a tropical cyclone information statement, outlining a combination of the weather front and post-tropical Nicole, remains in effect by the Canadian Hurricane Centre for the Maritimes. An additional special weather statement is in place for both New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island. That statement not only advises that some higher winds gusts may be present but that those areas are under higher risk of seeing heavier rain. I’ll have an update on our CTV Atlantic News programming at 5, 6, and 11:30 p.m.

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