Rain and downpours for the Maritimes; Hurricane Milton to impact both Mexico and Florida

The eye of a very dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Milton clearly visible on high resolution satellite imagery courtesy of the College of DuPage.

It’s a soggy start to the second week of October for the Maritimes as a band of rain and downpours moves in slowly from the west. An already extremely powerful and dangerous Hurricane Milton is expected to strengthen further on its way to impact both Mexico and Florida.

Maritime rain and downpours

A slow-moving weather front will push rain across the Maritimes Monday through early Wednesday morning.

Rain and downpours will move into western New Brunswick Monday afternoon and evening. The risk of downpours is lower Monday night into Tuesday morning, but rain, drizzle, and fog will be present across the Maritimes.

There will be rain and downpours for New Brunswick and western Nova Scotia Tuesday morning and afternoon. The rain and downpours then shift into Prince Edward Island and eastern Nova Scotia, including Cape Breton, Tuesday evening and night. The last of the rain will clear Cape Breton early Wednesday morning.

The system has had a history of producing rainfall rates of 20 to 40 mm/hr in downpours. That rate of rain increases the risk of flash flooding. It will also reduce visibility on roads and create hydroplaning conditions.

Rain and downpours will continue to move slowly west-to-east across the Maritimes on Tuesday.

Rain amounts

The front is expected to produce a general 10 to 40 mm of rain across the Maritimes. Due to the presence of downpours, local rain totals could be as much as 40 to 75 mm. One area with a higher risk of the heavier rain is parts of northern and western New Brunswick. The eastern half of Restigouche County, including Campbellton-Dalhousie, along with Bathurst and the Acadian Peninsula, should be especially cautious of a period of heavier rain. Just across the Bay of Chaleur, the Gaspe Peninsula of Quebec is under a rainfall warning, with totals of 60 to 90 mm expected.

The rain is needed in the Maritimes after a dry stretch through much of September and into the first week of October. We just need to be cautious of the downpours along with it.

A general 10 to 40 mm of rain, with pockets of 40 to 75 mm due to downpours, is expected Monday through early Wednesday in the Maritimes.

Hurricane Milton strengthens to Category 5

In a special update issued at 12:55 PM ADT, the National Hurricane Center of the United States declared Hurricane Milton a Category 5, with maximum sustained winds of near 260 km/h near the eye. This was based off data received from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft.

The extremely dangerous storm may see winds strengthen further to near 270 km/h as it moves past the northern coastline of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night into Tuesday morning. A storm surge of 1.2 to 1.8 metres (4 to 6 feet) is expected on portions of that coastline. Hurricane and tropical storm force winds are also expected for the northern Yucatan.

The forecast cone for Hurricane Milton from the National Hurricane Center.

Milton will then cross the Gulf of Mexico to make landfall Wednesday night in western Florida as either a Category 4 or very strong Category 3 hurricane. The landfall point is expected to be somewhere between Cedar Key on the northern point of the cone, to Fort Myers on the southern point of the cone. Tampa is located nearly dead center of the cone. The storm is then expected to exit east of Florida into the Atlantic ocean by Thursday morning moving towards Bermuda as it weakens to a post-tropical area of low pressure.

Hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings extend from the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico to Florida.

A storm surge of 1.2 to 3.7 metres (4 to 7 feet) is expected for parts of the western Florida coastline. Some of the highest storm surge is possible around the city of Tampa. Flooding inland rain of 100 to nearly 400 mm is expected for parts of the state. The area from Tampa north to Cedary Key and then across to St. Augustine looks most at risk for the very heaviest of the rain. Pockets of rain over 100 mm could be seen as far south as Key West though. The overall impact of the rain to the southeastern U.S. (not including Florida) will likely be less than with Hurricane Helene due to Milton moving back out over the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday.

The storm will also be accompanied by hurricane and tropical storm force winds for a large area of Florida. Much of western Florida is under either a hurricane watch or a tropical storm watch.

Storm surge and a flooding inland rain are expected for parts of Florida.