Hot start to October in the Maritimes cools off

Smith Lake at Sugarloaf Provincial Park in Atholville, N.B. (Judith Thibodeau)

HALIFAX -

If you like warmer fall days, this October got off to a banner start. A persistent ridge in the jet stream as well as lingering high pressure contributed to an extended stretch of sunnier, warmer weather through the first half of the month.

As of Oct. 18, the average daily temperature at several sites above the region is sitting well above the 30-year climate normal.

As of Oct. 18, most of the Maritimes is sitting 2 to 4 degrees above when compared to the average daily temperature for the month. In most years, mid-to-late October is cooler than early-to-mid October so you’d expect that surplus to fall by end of month. Still that 2 to 4 degree deviation is noteworthy, as is the fact that several weather observation sites reported one to two more 20-degree day high temperature days than what is typical for the month.

Looks like the switch has been flipped on us for the back half though.

A weather front brought a general 10 to 30 mm rainfall to the region this past weekend. A few communities seeing more rain, some less.

Following a weekend weather front that brought a general 10 to 30 mm of rain to the region (some areas less and a few more) a trough of cooler air has moved in aloft. Temperatures this week look closer to seasonable when compared to the warm start to the month. Long-range guidance for the remainder of October generally shows that should continue with the odd milder day possible but unlikely to see the return of another several day stretch of well above normal temperatures. You may still want to be ready to add a bit of insulation to the Halloween costumes.

Following the weekend system a pool of cooler air aloft has moved into place. A return to several days in a row of above seasonable temperatures looks unlikely through the end of October.

The milder fall (so far) this year was in line with seasonal predictions by Environment Canada for above normal temperatures for the Maritimes through November. That same predictive system continues to show a near-to-better than 50 per cent chance of above normal temperatures into December and January as well.