N.S. election race tightens as PCs and NDP gain momentum: Poll

HALIFAX -

With Nova Scotians set to pick a premier in less than a week, newly released poll data shows a tightening race among the three main parties and unusually high levels of undecided voters.

A survey released by Narrative Research on Wednesday says in terms of decided voters, the gap between the Liberals and the PCs has narrowed, with support for the Liberals being at its lowest point in the past year.

The survey also notes that undecided voters account for 35 per cent, as the August 17 Election Day draws closer.

"If we were to look at back at the last election, just the few weeks prior, that was more like 17 percent," said Margaret Brigley, CEO of Narrative Research.

Compared to the Narrative Research’s last poll on the subject done in May, it appears support is also shifting.

"The Liberals entered the race in a really strong position with really high satisfaction and voter intentions were in their favour. What we've seen though in the last few weeks the race has tightened," Brigley said.

Narrative Research’s survey of 540 voters shows 40 per cent of decided voters choose the Liberals while 31 per cent choose the Progressive Conservatives and 27 per cent would vote NDP and two per cent for the Greens.

The Liberals pivoted their message this week by injecting COVID-19 into the conversation with promises of a vaccine passport— a voluntary tool businesses and residents could use to ask for and show proof of vaccine.

Liberal leader Iain Rankin spent the last two days in Cape Breton.

"In 2017 it was a part of the province where the Progressive Conservatives did better than the Liberals," said Erin Crandall, a political science professor at Acadia University.

NDP leader Gary Burrill is staying close to the party’s stronghold of Halifax and was visited by federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh Wednesday while PC leader Tim Houston spent the day between the Eastern shore and Antigonish.

When asked, the opposition says the race is tightening and they’ve heard it on the doorstep.

"A wave of concern and misgiving about the judgement of the Rankin Liberals," Burrill said.

"Maybe they're satisfied with Stephen McNeil and COVID in general but they're not satisfied with Iain Rankin," Houston said.

Iain Rankin says his party is on the right track.

"No matter where we go in this province Nova Scotians want us to keep moving forward, keep making the investments that we are," said Rankin, who took over from McNeil in February.

"In primary care, we’re recruiting more doctors than we ever have before, we’re addressing the issues in long-term care and we are leaders, not only in this country but in the globe on how we’re keeping Nova Scotians safe."

Meanwhile, amongst decided voters, the level of support for each party also differs based on age and gender.

Data shows that women are more likely to vote Liberal, followed by the NDP, then PC. Though men are most likely to vote PCs, then Liberals and NDP.

The Liberals and NDP are tied in terms of decided young voters under the age of 35.

The middle-age segment has mixed opinions, though the Liberals lead by a small margin.

Among those 55 and older, the race is close between the Liberals and the PCs.

Despite a narrowing in the gap between preferences for premier, Liberal leader Iain Rankin continues to be the preferred choice. This could be in part due to the 61 per cent satisfaction level of the current government.

Narrative says it has never seen a government not re-elected if its performance satisfaction is more than 50 per cent.

"Given the unusual times, performance assessment of government is likely strongly linked to the government’s handling of the pandemic," said Brigley.

"This might not be as an important measure when satisfaction is not related to more broad-based performance, but rather more likely based on a single issue."

Results were drawn from a telephone survey of 540 adults between July 27 to August 9 and have an accuracy of ±4.2 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.