Storm tracking: Hurricane Lee forecast cone extends across Maritimes

A satellite image shows Hurricane Lee on Sept. 11, 2023.

The forecast cone for Lee now includes all three Maritime provinces. The cone represents the area through which the storm will take a probable path. The risk of stormy weather for the Maritimes continues to be Saturday and Sunday.

Hurricane Lee maintains a Category 3 storm Tuesday afternoon.

Due to the increased amount of uncertainty that far into the forecast for the storm, it should be noted that the cone is quite wide, measuring over 700 km in width.

In their first bulletin on Lee, the Canadian Hurricane Centre stated that “The range of track possibilities is very broad this far ahead in time, ranging from somewhere in Maine to the southeast of Nova Scotia.” The extent the centre of the storm moves through that area will determine what areas experience the worst of the weather with the storm.

For example, a pass more towards the west, into Maine, would direct the strongest of the winds Saturday into coastal Maine and the heaviest of the rain through that state and into eastern areas of Quebec. A pass of the centre of the storm into southwestern Nova Scotia would bring the most intense wind into western areas of that province and southern New Brunswick Saturday, with the heaviest rain occurring in southwestern Nova Scotia and extending into New Brunswick. A more precise path through the area will continue to be narrowed down over the coming days.

The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center has Lee approaching the Maritimes as a Category 1 hurricane Saturday morning.

On the plus side, as Lee moves west of Bermuda it is expected to encounter a pool of relatively cooler water that was left in the wake of the passage of Hurricane Franklin last week. That, combined with some unfavourable wind conditions, is expected to decrease the intensity of the storm with it approaching as a Category 1 hurricane – making the storm weaker than both Fiona and Dorian, which arrived as equivalent Category 2.

A pool of ocean water less than 26.5 degrees Celsius is present just west of Bermuda due to the passage of Hurricane Franklin. As Lee moves over that water it should work to weaken the storm.

Just because the storm may not be as intense as Fiona and Dorian, that doesn’t mean it won’t be impactful. While the intensity in the forecast may decrease, the size of the storm will actually increase. The wind and rain will diffuse outwards from the centre to encompass a very large area. The wind will still be strong enough to bring a high risk of power outages to the Maritimes. Areas that get into the heaviest rain will still have a risk of flooding and flash flooding. A rough and pounding surf will be present on parts of the coast. Travel services, such as ferries, may still be disrupted.

Additionally whether it moves more towards Maine or more directly into the Maritimes, the storm will be slow to clear the region. That means, while the worst of the weather may arrive for Saturday, some lingering impacts when it comes to gusty winds and rain are anticipated for Sunday as well.